Changing socioeconomic indicators of human plague, New Mexico, USA.

Socioeconomic indicators associated with temporal changes in the distribution of human plague cases in New Mexico were investigated for 1976-2007. In the 1980s, cases were more likely in census block groups with poor housing conditions, but by the 2000s, cases were associated with affluent areas concentrated in the Santa Fe-Albuquerque region.

Residence-linked human plague in New Mexico: a habitat-suitability model.

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has been detected in fleas and mammals throughout the western United States. This highly virulent infection is rare in humans, surveillance of the disease is expensive, and it often was assumed that risk of exposure to Y. pestis is high in most of the western United States. For these reasons, some local health departments in these plague-affected regions have hesitated to undertake surveillance and other prevention activities. To aid in targeting limited public health resources, we created a fine-resolution human plague risk map for New Mexico, the state reporting more than half the human cases in the United States. Our GIS-based model included three landscape features-a nonlinear relationship with elevation, distance to water, and distance to the ecotone between Rocky Mountain/Great Basin open and closed coniferous woodlands-and yielded an overall accuracy of approximately 80%. The model classified 17.25% of the state as posing significant risk of exposure to humans on privately or tribally owned land, which suggests that resource requirements for regular surveillance and control of plague could be effectively focused on < 20% of the state.

Human plague in the southwestern United States, 1957-2004: spatial models of elevated risk of human exposure to Yersinia pestis.

Plague is a rare but highly virulent flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis Yersin. Identifying areas at high risk of human exposure to the etiological agent of plague could provide a useful tool for targeting limited public health resources and reduce the likelihood of misdiagnosis by raising awareness of the disease. We created logistic regression models to identify landscape features associated with areas where humans have acquired plague from 1957 to 2004 in the four-corners region of the United States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and we extrapolated those models within a geographical information system to predict where plague cases are likely to occur within the southwestern United States disease focus. The probability of an area being classified as high-risk plague habitat increased with elevation up to approximately 2300 m and declined as elevation increased thereafter, and declined with distance from key habitat types (e.g., southern Rocky Mountain piñon--juniper [Pinus edulis Engelm. and Juniperus spp.], Colorado plateau piñon--juniper woodland, Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P.& C. Lawson var. scopulorum), and southern Rocky Mountain juniper woodland and savanna). The overall accuracy of the model was >82%. Our most conservative model predicted that 14.4% of the four-corners region represented a high risk of peridomestic exposure to Y. pestis.